Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 36,316
2 Mississippi 33,451
3 Florida 33,141
4 Alabama 31,958
5 Arizona 30,194
6 North Dakota 29,783
7 Iowa 28,995
8 South Carolina 28,975
9 Georgia 28,670
10 Tennessee 28,653
11 Arkansas 28,424
12 Texas 27,376
13 South Dakota 26,588
14 Nevada 26,389
15 Idaho 24,357
16 Nebraska 24,284
17 New York 23,972
18 Illinois 23,796
19 Rhode Island 23,670
20 New Jersey 23,464
21 Utah 23,448
22 Wisconsin 23,185
23 Oklahoma 22,633
24 District of Columbia 21,853
25 Missouri 21,788
26 Delaware 21,501
27 Kansas 21,411
28 California 20,964
29 Maryland 20,958
30 North Carolina 20,502
31 Massachusetts 19,387
32 Indiana 18,561
33 Minnesota 17,983
34 Virginia 17,536
35 Kentucky 16,690
36 Connecticut 16,351
37 Puerto Rico 15,576
38 New Mexico 14,307
39 Michigan 14,024
40 Ohio 13,414
41 Montana 13,140
42 Pennsylvania 12,987
43 Colorado 12,581
44 Alaska 12,253
45 Washington 12,177
46 Wyoming 10,736
47 West Virginia 9,099
48 Hawaii 9,007
49 Oregon 8,103
50 New Hampshire 6,276
51 Maine 4,067
52 Vermont 2,833

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 South Dakota 574
2 North Dakota 565
3 Wisconsin 472
4 Montana 380
5 Iowa 343
6 Arkansas 334
7 Nebraska 333
8 Utah 315
9 Idaho 312
10 Kansas 281
11 Oklahoma 281
12 Missouri 266
13 Wyoming 226
14 Mississippi 215
15 Alabama 213
16 Kentucky 197
17 Tennessee 186
18 Illinois 180
19 Indiana 179
20 North Carolina 179
21 Minnesota 172
22 Nevada 172
23 Alaska 164
24 Rhode Island 163
25 Texas 152
26 Louisiana 141
27 Delaware 138
28 Georgia 137
29 New Mexico 134
30 Puerto Rico 133
31 Colorado 115
32 West Virginia 114
33 Florida 112
34 Ohio 111
35 Maryland 105
36 Michigan 105
37 South Carolina 100
38 Massachusetts 98
39 Connecticut 90
40 California 87
41 Virginia 84
42 Pennsylvania 79
43 New Jersey 77
44 Washington 75
45 Hawaii 74
46 New Hampshire 73
47 Arizona 72
48 Oregon 69
49 New York 68
50 District of Columbia 58
51 Maine 32
52 Vermont 10

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,816
2 New York 1,685
3 Massachusetts 1,376
4 Connecticut 1,265
5 Louisiana 1,192
6 Rhode Island 1,055
7 Mississippi 1,007
8 District of Columbia 891
9 Arizona 782
10 Michigan 711
11 Illinois 710
12 Florida 677
13 South Carolina 662
14 Delaware 659
15 Georgia 654
16 Maryland 653
17 Pennsylvania 644
18 Texas 562
19 Indiana 543
20 Nevada 523
21 Alabama 520
22 Arkansas 460
23 Iowa 436
24 New Mexico 423
25 Ohio 419
26 California 406
27 Virginia 380
28 Minnesota 374
29 Tennessee 364
30 Colorado 359
31 Missouri 359
32 North Dakota 350
33 North Carolina 345
34 New Hampshire 325
35 Washington 294
36 Kentucky 275
37 Idaho 267
38 South Dakota 267
39 Oklahoma 263
40 Nebraska 257
41 Kansas 239
42 Wisconsin 234
43 Puerto Rico 210
44 West Virginia 198
45 Montana 174
46 Utah 147
47 Oregon 134
48 Maine 105
49 Hawaii 99
50 Vermont 92
51 Wyoming 91
52 Alaska 72

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 North Dakota 10
2 Florida 6
3 Kansas 5
4 South Dakota 5
5 Arkansas 4
6 Mississippi 4
7 Tennessee 4
8 Georgia 3
9 Iowa 3
10 Louisiana 3
11 Massachusetts 3
12 Missouri 3
13 North Carolina 3
14 Ohio 3
15 South Carolina 3
16 Texas 3
17 Alabama 2
18 Arizona 2
19 California 2
20 Delaware 2
21 Idaho 2
22 Illinois 2
23 Indiana 2
24 Kentucky 2
25 Minnesota 2
26 Montana 2
27 Oklahoma 2
28 Virginia 2
29 Wisconsin 2
30 District of Columbia 1
31 Hawaii 1
32 Michigan 1
33 Nevada 1
34 New Mexico 1
35 Pennsylvania 1
36 Puerto Rico 1
37 Rhode Island 1
38 Utah 1
39 West Virginia 1
40 Wyoming 1
41 Alaska 0
42 Colorado 0
43 Connecticut 0
44 Maine 0
45 Maryland 0
46 Nebraska 0
47 New Hampshire 0
48 New Jersey 0
49 New York 0
50 Oregon 0
51 Vermont 0
52 Washington 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Lincoln Arkansas 157,171 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 153,846 2 99
Trousdale Tennessee 149,061 3 99
Lafayette Florida 146,402 4 99
Lake Tennessee 132,269 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 41,974 203 93
Richland South Carolina 37,334 288 90
York South Carolina 19,635 1222 61
Orange California 17,523 1413 55
Pierce Washington 10,031 2272 27

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 5,085 1 99
Kenedy Texas 4,950 2 99
Emporia city Virginia 4,863 3 99
Galax city Virginia 4,727 4 99
Randolph Georgia 4,279 5 99
Richland South Carolina 596 712 77
Davidson Tennessee 451 1008 67
Orange California 403 1118 64
York South Carolina 270 1499 52
Pierce Washington 253 1552 50

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons